I bought car sharing service stock / 4666:Park24

We often hear recently the word “sharing economy service” in TV news and internet. In this field, Various companies are talking about. 

1) Ride share: Many people knows “Uber” & “Lyft”. The SoftBank Group and Rakuten are major shareholders, so it has become a hot topic in Japan.  It can match the driver and the customer who wants to move. I also used Uber in Hawaii, it was convenient. The driver checked the GPS signal and picked me up pinpoint. I have entered the destination in the application in advance, the driver understood my destination, so it was OK even if I could not understand local language. I felt the price was 30-40% cheaper than ordinary taxis. 

2) Private lodging: This is a service to rent homes, vacant houses, and villas to people who need vacant rooms. “Airbnb” is famous. It was a story that private lodging would be useful for foreign tourists at the Tokyo Olympics. I also rented a private villa by the sea on the North shore of Oahu, Hawaii for about a week. It was a very big house but cheaper than staying in a hotel and the location was really satisfying. I thought that it would be a great system that these services would connect an individual who wants to rent someone when the villa is vacant and an individual who wants to rent the villa at a certain time. 

3) Rental Space: A service that provides a place for private parties and conference rooms. “Space market” is a hot topic. I’ve failed in Space market stock, but I’ll explain that story on another occasion. 

4) Food delivery: A service to get your favorite menu from your favorite restaurant.  In Japan, I think “Uber Eats” was deployed earlier than the Uber service. Recently I’ve also seen large square black backpacks of Uber Eats near my home. I have not used Uber Eats yet, but I would like to use it someday. 

5) Car Sharing: Cars are useful for people. But there are some people don’t want own their cars because of maintenance costs such as vehicle inspections, parking fees and insurance costs. This car sharing system is suitable for these people. Personally, I thought it was the best business type in this list. 

“Times” brand is operated by “Park24” is mainly parking lot business, But their car sharing business is the undisputed No1 share in Japan. And the number of sharing cars is about 30,000. Even if compared with “Careco” of No2, number of cars is more than sixfold. About “Orix” of No3, number is more than sixfold. 

For the following reasons, In March 2019, I thought that I could buy the future of Park 24.

1) Young people’s lack of interest in cars -> Not purchasing, sharing when needed

2) Increasing number of households worried about the economic disadvantages of owning a car
3) Enhancement of car sharing infrastructure 

1) 2) are popular phrase. I felt 3) in my usual life. there is a Times parking lot near my house, including 3 cars for car sharing. I often pass in front of the parking lot, I was impressed that the occupancy rate was high. Perhaps the car has been moved to another parking lot. Before that, if the occupancy rate is like this, it may not be worth the profit. 

In this time, it didn’t go as expected. In many cases, the many facts were different from my expectations when I traded stocks. My expectation is not sensible… 

So, I couldn’t reach to the success story I expected by my mistake. But I was able to know a lot about sharing services. I think that was a good study. 

Was my buy Park 24 shares successful? 

It didn’t succeed result. After purchasing 100 shares for ¥2,460 on March 27 2019 in NISA system. I could not stand the moveless.  After three months, I sold it for ¥2,490. It is +30 yen for the time being. But the stocks were NISA system, it was practical defeat. After that, Park 24 sharply dropped due to the Corona virus shock, it rebounded to 2,270 yen in June, but it was downward trend from July to August. 

How about Park 24 business result? They were generating stable profits, but business profit was negative in 2020 2Q. This quarter was from February to April 2020, so it was probably because of Corona virus shock. The company that had been earning 50 million yen in annual business profit got business profit of -60 million yen. It is said that it was the first half deficit financial result for the first time since its listing in 1997. 

If you look at the materials for the financial results briefing for the 2Q of October 2020, I think everyone can understand the cause, but the only reason is the “high sales decrease due to COVID-19”. 

However, the ratio of parking lot sales to the previous fiscal year is on a recovery trend, bottoming out in the first week of May. 67.8% in April 2020, 66.5% in May, 87.1% in June. In June as well, the recovery is solid with each week, with 79.7% in the first week, 82.6% in the second week, 87.0% in the third week, and 90.3% in the fourth week. 

What about Park 24 in the future? 

 I tried to graph the quarterly sales from 2015 and year-on-year comparison data. They have reached the highest sales in 2019 4Q. However, when compared to the same period of the previous year, it peaked at 43.9% in 2018 1Q and continued to decline, and has been below 10% since 2019 1Q. The growth rate is declining. 

Was my idea below wrong as of March 2019? 

1) Young people’s lack of interest in cars -> Not purchasing, sharing when needed 

2) Increasing number of households worried about the economic disadvantages of owning a car

3) Enhancement of car sharing infrastructure 

In the materials for the financial results briefing for 2Q of October 2020, in order to improve the future performance of both the parking lot business and the car sharing business, they said “In order to improve the future performance of both individual and legal people, the how to use of vehicles as transportation should be readjust”  

The graph below compares the number of driver license holders by age in 2018 and 2019. The data for the last two years is the only thing. But it seems surprising is that the younger they are, become not less driver’s license holding rate. 

The following graph shows changes in the number of driver’s license holders and passenger owned cars (including mini cars).  

Looking at this, the number of driver’s license holders is becoming the ceiling. The population will decrease in near future, so it is likely that it will start to decrease. 

Although the number of passenger owned cars has decreased growth rate compared to the 1990s, it can be seen that the upward trend continues in 2020. In my personal imagination, there was an image that it was decreasing year by year, but it was not so. 

*The data on the number of driver’s license holders was borrowed from the National Police Agency Japan, The data on the number of passenger cars owned was borrowed from the Japan Automobile Service Promotion Association (JASPA). 

From here you can see  

1) The number of driver’s license holders will start to decline in the future  

2) Although the number of passenger cars owned has not increased as much as before, it is likely to grow for some years. 

Apparently, I can’t say that my expectations were correct at the time of March 2019. After all, I realized that it is important to draw conclusions from the data, not the senses.  

Park 24 2020 3Q financial results announcement is September 15, 2020.  

I’m looking forward in many ways. 

 

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